Author: rickandrade121

The research may surprise you.

Scientists say early humans died young. Fossil records say average life expectancy was 38 years for Neanderthals, and 40 for Homo Sapiens. But this is a massive misconception of the consequences of calculating averages. If two humans, one dies at birth while the other is eaten by a Mammoth at age 70, the average age of death is 35.

Surviving birth was the first goal. And if you lived to 30 you could live into your 60s… that was 40,000 years ago.

But it wasn’t as much about their genes. Despite the constant struggle and stress to survive, our early ancestors’ actual lifespan was a surprising (60-70 years), only a couple decades less than modern humans live today. Which got me thinking.

Given the contemporary absence of lions, tigers, bears, hungry wolves and bone-crushing Mammoths, why has our life expectancy today only increased at a snail’s pace?

The answer is not medical science. It’s your job! And it may be killing you.

Add up the stats and we can now predict your life expectancy simply based on your job and where you live. Actuaries do it for a living, which then begs the obvious question:

“How long have I got, Doc?”

White-Collar vs. Blue-Collar — Choosing wisely

Did you know that the U.S. government has been tracking worker occupation deaths for decades? And they’re hiding a secret in plain sight?

According to a 2020 research study on life expectancy of working Americans by the National Institutes of Health from 1997-2014 by occupation, mortality rates among white-collar professionals from accountants to engineers, managers and CEOs has outpaced blue-collar workers’ by a decade.

As I show below, someone in a managerial or professional role can expect to live 82 years, while laborers and machine operators will clock out permanently around 71.

Once again. the difference is due more to environment than genetics. Gaps in lifespan today relate specifically to access to healthcare (and using it), workplace hazards (physical dangers), your degree of control over your own schedule, amount of travel (remote work vs RTO), and stress. The more of these, the shorter your lifespan.

If we summarize these characteristics by occupation, we get this list from the NIH data:

What surprised me wasn’t the occupation lifespan gaps. It was that after thousands of years modern laborers’ average lifespan isn’t much longer than our cave-dwelling ancestors’.

And it gets worse.

Apparently where you live really matters among the contributing factors to one’s life expectancy in America, and the data speaks for itself.

According to the Institute of Health Metrics & Evaluation, if you live in the red, you die in the red.

So, don’t head south?

Let’s put it this way. CDC researcher Dr. Mary Bassett sums it up, “Where you start in life—and which job you land—can be the difference between a long life or an early grave.”

The CDC reports 50% of early deaths in the South are attributable to poor diet and lack of healthcare both leading to catastrophic levels of heart disease and cancer.

And it’s not only lifestyle choices and poverty doing the damage. According to research by Johns Hopkins, jobs that involve high physical exertion, repetitive stress, and safety risks—from construction to long-haul trucking—contribute to faster biological wear and tear on your body and to more chronic illnesses. And from the looks of it much of the Blue-Collar South fits that bill with a list of killers that looks a lot like a Neanderthal’s list to me.

• Physical strain and injury
• Lack of access to preventative care
• Greater exposure to hazards and toxic substances
• Less schedule flexibility and decision-making power
• Workplace stress and psycho-social risk
• (Being crushed by a Mammoth – not part of the modern study)

Then there’s the other end of the spectrum.

Our wealthy, well-educated, more modern white-collar business owners and CEOs.

This group has abundant access to better diet, exercise and healthcare. Their jobs are more brain than brawn and they do live longer than many blue-collar workers.

But, while blue-collar workers cut out after a laborious 8-hour shift, white-collar executives can only watch them leave. If you’re in management you know the drill, crippling late night hours and layers of added stress at work can take their toll.

While blue-collar workers die younger from higher exposure to physical strain and fatality risks, CEOs and senior executives face other vulnerabilities—most notably, chronic psychological stress and higher rates of cardiovascular and immune-related diseases.

So. Is the tradeoff worth the money? Let’s ask.

If I offered to pay you $1 million dollars for every year I cut from your lifespan, would you take the deal?

——-

If you said yes, you’re likely a young go-getter with time to burn. But if you’re older, the answer is more likely, Hell No!

But let’s let the before and after pics speak for themselves.

But let’s let the before and after pics speak for themselves.

Jim Donald, CEO of Starbucks, from 2005 to 2008, smack in the middle of the historical Financial Crisis reveals firsthand it’s not just U.S. Presidents who age like milk in the sun.

In those few sleepless years Jim visually took it on the chin.

Or how about Apple CEO Tim Cook, who took over the reins as CEO when Steve Jobs resigned in 2011. He’s living proof that managing any company during tough times can seriously age you.  And the bigger the gig, the faster you’ll age.

Hence the trade-off… your health… for cash.

Still. Make no mistake these men are true heroes in my book. At the time both Starbucks and Apple were facing strong headwinds. Starbucks saw declining foot traffic and the stock tanked. Meanwhile, Tim Cook was asked to fill the shoes of an industry titan on the brink, famous founder Steve Jobs at Apple. God himself could not avoid the cost of life in that role.

Both men faced enormous obstacles, odds stacked against them at every turn. And yet both men managed to right-size their ship, and were paid handsomely for it.

The trade-off paid off, I suppose. Had these men known the high cost of success is time, would they go back and ‘just say no’?

I was not surprised to read a 2020 UC Berkeley study of 1600 public company CEOs which found that when a company is under great stress, leadership health suffers as well.

CEOs in high-pressure environments died, on average, two years sooner than insulated peers—an accelerated direct consequence of economic stress.

“You might think that’s not a lot, but actually it’s huge. It’s comparable to significant health hazards like smoking,” says Professor Ulrike Malmendier, Berkeley Haas School of Business who co-authored the 2020 study.

These are cumulative and lasting consequences.

Meanwhile, NIH and the National Bureau of Economic Research confirm that industry downturns, hostile takeovers, and volatile stock prices accelerate executive aging, with the mortality risk for CEOs increasing relative to how exposed the firm is to market shocks, sales downturns and angry shareholders.

Which means Life is great at the top – until you suddenly look in the mirror and your admin says your doctor left a message to call him.

In other words, reap great rewards building an empire, but business owners and CEOs like the rest of us, must ‘pay the piper’ either way.

Chronic stress means higher rates of cardiovascular and immune-system illnesses, leading to shorter lifespans and fruitlessly burning out our late-night, corner office captains of industry one after another, like flares off the Titanic.

“What we’re beginning to understand is that life at the top isn’t that easy,” and top managers face health problems too, says Prof. Tom Nicholas at Harvard Business School.

And if you’ve been at the helm or in the corner office for more than 5-years, odds are you can already feel it. Look at your palm.

The hidden cost of leadership lingering inside you is quietly snipping away at the edges of your lifeline. An unwelcome reminder that daily job stress and worry climbing the corporate ladder or running a business can erase the longer-life advantages white-collar workers were fortunate to accrue in advance.

Is there anything you can do to beat the odds?

A 2021 study by JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) found that autonomy and job satisfaction—features more common in white-collar work—are powerful predictors of a longer life. So, if you hate your stressful job, a healthy choice would be to find a new one.

Similarly, socioeconomic results published by the National Bureau of Economic Research suggests higher income and educational achievement do directly link to longer life, both through access to better healthcare and reduced exposure to dangerous physical conditions.

We simply need to better appreciate the cost of work. Overall, on the bright side we do live longer than our ancestral cave painting clans, 40,000 years ago. But in the U.S., according to Healthdata.org by 2050 life expectancy will only increase by two years, dropping us from 49^th to 66^th in global lifespan. Two steps forward, three steps back.

Lastly, if your job is killing you and you can’t quit to save your life – target your elevated stress levels. Give nature a chance to help.

Get outside for 15 minutes each day, a lunch walk in the park calms our restless biology experts say. It’s called “eco-therapy,” like meditation, a little goes a long way.

The real trick as we age is to appreciate a modern human body over 50 years is like a fine-tuned bio-mechanical machine, a collective dynamic organism that responds to your genetics, lifestyle choices and occupational hazards every day. Take charge of it! You only get one.

So, here’s the bottom line: Whether you’re swinging a hammer or running a boardroom, the reaper takes his cut. The good news is the more you understand this and adapt, blue-collar or white… the longer you’ll outlive your inner caveman.

 And who doesn’t want that, right?

[Author: Rick Andrade – as published at CEO World Magazine]

“What more sacred, what more strongly guarded by every ‘holy feeling,’ than a man’s own home?”
— Cicero, Roman philosopher, 44 BC

2,000 years later it’s much the same feeling in America. It’s part of the American Dream. And in times like these our country must do more – go deeper to help home buyers embrace that ‘holy feeling’ again. But how?

We all hear the endless sticker shock stories online from younger home buyers trying to get into their first house, all to no avail given the high price of homes these days.

Experts argue that the reason homes are unreachable for many middle-class new buyers is largely because our federal, state and local leaders have imposed far too many building and zoning restrictions which limit housing developers’ ability to keep pace with market demand.

But the most-cited reason first-time buyers get priced out of the home market is the cost of financing their mortgages.

Most first-time buyers are looking for a 30-yr mortgage with monthly payments they can afford.

Right now, and for some time, 30-yr mortgage rates in America have fluctuated between 6%-7%, which seems high. And it may not make you feel any better to know that over the last 50 years, between 1971-2025, the average 30-yr fixed rate mortgage was 7.7% according to Freddie Mac data, and topped 16% in 1981. Can you imagine that?

Still, this starkly contrasts with many lucky homeowners sitting on mortgage rates under 3% — like mine, which is a jaw-dropping 2.8%. But the lower the mortgage rate, the tighter the “golden handcuffs” according to real estate experts. Low rates tend to trap homeowners in their homes, unwilling or unable to let go of the super low-rate paper, which in turn limits the number of homes available for sale, and drives up prices.

These below market rates at the time were only possible if you lived through a crisis like a recession or a global pandemic such as Covid in 2021, when the 30-yr fixed mortgage rate dropped to 2% and the benchmark 10-yr note was near zero. That’s when millions of home buyers and owners struck gold with rock-bottom rates.

The unaffordability conundrum we see today is a rate snap-back, which first started in January 2022 when the average 30-yr mortgage rate leaped from 3.2% to 7.08% by October 2022 and never looked back.

What’s my point?

In the blink of an eye, the skyrocketing mortgage rates left nearly every first-time home buyer in the lurch, frozen in step and priced out of the market, their dream of home ownership a distant hope.

And the feeling is widespread. Just ask any real estate agent across the country.

Colorado Real Estate Agent, Adrienne Herzog for example expresses her current state of despair:

“My clients are frustrated because the rates are stuck near 7%, and it’s pricing them out of homes they could have afforded a few years ago.”

Indiana Real Estate Agent Chuck Vander Stelt is frustrated:

“I hear from buyers all the time that these rates—over 7%—are crushing their dreams of owning a home. They’re having to scale back or look at riskier options like adjustable-rate mortgages just to get in the door.”

President Trump meanwhile is taking notice.

This past month he demanded Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve Bank lower interest rates immediately to reduce the cost of home financing. Home ownership has plummeted in the last 5 years from 68% in 2020 to 65% in 2025 and it’s still trending down as existing home purchase contracts continue to fall year over year.

But to stem the tide, rates need to come down.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun,  his data shows that 5.5 million more households could afford a home if rates drop to 6%, boosting home sales this year and next.

And it’s the Existing Home Sales revenues that drive economic growth across our economy. For each home sold, the NAR calculates $60,000/unit in new economic activity, and one new job for every 2 homes sold. That’s how important lower rates are.

Yet, it’s been 4 years since rates were low enough to stimulate sales. And while elevated home values are a big roadblock, affordability is the key. Trump’s pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Funds rate is like talking to a wall. It’s obvious we need to do something more, and the answer is right in front of us.

Stop using the 10-yr treasury note to benchmark 30-yr mortgage rates.

Did you know – ?

The reason most consumer debts are based off of the 10-yr US treasury note is because lenders (aka banks) prefer longer term interest-bearing loans to earn the interest income while enduring the duration, credit risks and servicing costs.

Lending is not risk-free. Make no mistake, lenders typically face a series of potential profit-killing risks for any given loan, such as prepayments, defaults, bankruptcies, late payments, and 10-yr note market price swings that require banks to implement sophisticated hedging programs to manage. None of which most borrowers understand or care about.

And for those reasons historically, the 10-yr treasury note fits the bill and is the de facto market benchmark. It’s a measure of what investors who buy mortgages expect to earn from a risk-free government note with inflation baked in for 10 years.

In fact, most loans for cars, boats, buildings, land, machinery, and our homes are all 5+ year longer-term loans. Hence the 10-yr treasury plus a risk-premium sets a ballpark rate for most consumer and small business debt.

Historically, pre-Covid, lenders in general sold 30-yr fixed rate mortgages by adding to the 10-yr a meager 1%-2% (aka the spread) for risk and expenses. For example, if the 10-yr rate was 3.50% you could expect mortgage rates to be between 4.5% – 5.5%. But since the pandemic, all that’s changed.

Today the spread is not 1-2% but rather as high as an eye-popping 3.0% since 2023, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), and consumers are not happy about it!

Unfortunately, these elevated rates have stuck around since 2021 and remain high experts say due to the elevated economic and geopolitical uncertainties and market risks being absorbed by the 10-yr benchmark, whose rate fluctuates with global demand and risks, including global trade tariffs, inflation, unemployment and economic growth.

So then why –

Why continue to benchmark our 30-yr mortgage rates against the 10-yr if we can use a shorter-term treasury note and that doesn’t completely compromise bank interest earnings over time?

Home ownership is not the same as a car loan, boat loan, or commercial real estate purchase. It’s a fundamental construct of the American Dream – and we can do better. 

What if we replaced the 10-yr treasury benchmark with the 5-yr? Can it be done in a market-driven price discovery market?

The short answer is yes!

American financial institutions and federal agencies could redesign the home loan mortgage market to base its benchmark off the 5-yr rate, let’s say instead of a 10-yr rate of 4.5% we use the 5-yr at 4.0%.

Reducing mortgage rates by 0.5% from 6.5% to 6% on the median-priced home ($435,000) looks small but will save borrowers more than $50,000 over the term of the loan, and more importantly opens the front door for millions more dreamers.

Meanwhile, lenders can hedge the shorter-term duration risk using 5-yr futures price hedging, a common practice today. Other risks which include prepayments, underwriting and secondary market sales can all be mitigated with a 2.0% loan spread added to the 5-yr rate (4%).

And here’s a real kick starter.

If we add to this another 0.5% of Fed interest rate cuts expected by year end, we could see a 30-yr fixed rate mortgage drop below 5.5%, and particularly more likely if mortgage rates are tied to a shorter-term treasury note, which responds more directly to interest rate cuts.

This will save homebuyers as much as $400 per month and $150,000 in interest expense savings over the life of the loan. That’s powerful stuff.

The point here is we don’t need to be locked into the status quo.

We can do more to knock down the prohibitively high cost of home financing — and tackling the old-school practice of how our home mortgages are calculated is the fastest route to get some relief.

As of 2025, it’s estimated that roughly 70%–75% of new 30-year mortgages are purchased or guaranteed by our federal agencies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.

That’s a lot of public influence. Let’s use it!

Luckily the Trump administration is on our side. With a single executive order Trump can instruct Congress and federal housing agencies to compel lenders to reconfigure mortgage rate pricing, which has not changed since the late 1970s according to Fannie Mae.

Trump can also take the lead to pressure state and local governments to reduce residential zoning and building restrictions, and incentivize home builders to increase unit supply to help keep inventories up and prices down.

Basically, if more Americans can get the word out to Congress and the administration to review and create alternatives to mortgage pricing, and get the House Committee on Financial Services to take steps to incentivize lenders to re-think long-term mortgage pricing it will instantly help millions more Americans get back to that “holy feeling” again.

Make sense?

[For more info on how 30-yr mortgages are priced this Fannie Mae article.]

Rick

About the author: Rick Andrade is an investment banker and market advisor in Los Angeles, Ca, where he helps CEOs and business owners buy, sell, and finance middle-market companies. Rick earned his BA and MBA from UCLA, along with his Series 7, 63, & 79 FINRA securities licenses. He is also a CA Real Estate Broker and blogs at www.RickAndrade.com on issues important to business owners. He can be reached at rickandrade.com.

As published by Rick Andrade at CEO World Magazine

Have you seen it, the vastly vacant U.S. ports of entry on the West Coast as trade with China and other Asian nations grinds to a skidding halt like a derailed locomotive?

According to Gene Seroka, Port of Los Angeles executive director, China shipments in May will be down again between 25% to 30% for all west coast ports since Trump’s sweeping tariff declarations last month.

On April 2^nd 2025, in a White House Rose Garden ceremony, President Trump announced America’s Day of Liberation: A massive across-the-board tariff scheme that “will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn,” the president said. And reborn it was, but not the way he intended.

In the past few weeks, the escalating U.S.-China trade war has put the brakes on trade.

America imported $462 billion in products from China, 13% of our total imports in 2024, and carries a huge $295 billion trade imbalance built up over decades of U.S. manufacturing outsourcing.

After President Trump first announced the 145% tariff on Chinese imports, and China responded with a 125% tariff on American imports, the stakes and risks of economic catastrophe scared the daylights out of most U.S. importers who immediately shouted foul play.

As a result, Trump sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to meet with high-level trade reps from China in Geneva recently and offered to lower U.S. tariffs from 145% to just 30%; a welcomed development.

China in turn dropped its tariffs to 10% and removed its export restrictions of vital Rare Earth Elements in a sign of détente, at least for 90 days. So how is it all playing out?

Back here at home, I call the move a shot across the bow for U.S. importers; a warning that despite the 90-day hiatus should compel CEOs and business owners who rely on China to take counter measures, and fast.

What was C+1 (China plus one other supplier) is now C+2 or C+3, says former World Bank President Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens’ College, Cambridge about the tariff wars.

“CEOs [who source from China] are just waiting. They don’t want to make any major decision that has longer term consequences,” he warns. And who wants to import anything if the tariff fee at U.S. ports of entry can substantially flip up or down on any given day?

In 1930 no fewer than 1,000 economists warned then President Hoover not to enact the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act to protect nascent American industries. Tariffs don’t work they argued. But he did it anyway, and the results triggered a global trade war against the U.S. which then saw a 66% decline in imports and exports over the next 2 years exacerbating and deepening the burdensome toll of the Great Depression. FDR quickly reversed the tariffs in 1932.

Still. Ninety-five years after Smoot-Hawley, much the same is happening today. As it turns out of all our global trading partners, America’s reliance on #1 China has since become a vital resource to millions of Americans who like inexpensive products.

Did you know 80% of U.S. toys imported are made in China?  Did you know that 30% of U.S. apparel and nearly all game consoles, PCs, laptops, smartphones and batteries we buy are made there?

This means that by August 2025 (90 days from now), without more concrete and definitive trade agreements with China, thousands of small and medium-sized U.S. businesses that rely on China for products and supplies to earn a living and pay wages will face layoffs, price increases or worse – extinction.

So what should you do about it?

Attempts to stave off the tariff Sword of Damocles are in fact well underway. Suzanne Clark, President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, penned an urgent letter to Trump’s tariff trade team recently begging for injunctive relief. This likely compelled Trump to sit upright and take note.

In the letter she warns with each passing day U.S. small businesses face unsustainably “higher costs and interrupted supply chains that will cause irreparable harm” if nothing is done.

She seeks an immediate written carve-out exemption for all small business importers before it’s too late. And I completely agree.

Trump must not let the sword of death fall upon small businesses in 90 days, in a one-shot attempt to rebalance trade with China.

And he must not further kick the can down the road, as he has repeatedly done with the TikTok social media platform, officially banned in the U.S. by Congress months ago. This management style only creates investment uncertainty and market chaos – both bad for business – and the president should know better.

So I too sent a letter advocating for a fixed 1-year tariff pause or exemption window to give vulnerable U.S. businesses a fighting chance to scrounge up new suppliers, C+3. It’s the only way, in my view, to save small businesses short of eliminating tariffs altogether.

At the same time, to cushion the blow many small companies that are able to absorb the 30% tariff are advancing their inventory purchases from China during the 90-day tariff window to desperately try to preserve sales and profits for the upcoming 2025 holiday season.

However, as it stands despite China and Trump indicating a willingness to negotiate a longer-term more permanent reduction to the existing tariff schemes, post-Christmas the party is over.

After 50+ changes to tariff policy in the last 100 days, there’s a growing sense the level of uncertainty in the corner office will only grow worse under Trump. And it’s time to play defense.

Here’s the plan:

• Get your goods on shore asap: Verify Transit Status: Confirm with your shipping broker and freight forwarder that your goods are or will be loaded at least 30-days before arriving in the U.S., and will arrive at the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland or Seattle no later than July 30^th 2025 to avoid the deadline rush. Be sure to double check Certificates of Origin and Bills of Lading documents to prove country of origin, value and sign-off dates. Keep in mind shipping rates may be higher as a rush of new orders refills vessel capacity.

• Accelerate Delivery: If arrival is scheduled close to or after July 30, work with your logistics provider to change carriers to expedite shipping, potentially rerouting cargo to faster vessels or prioritized loading. Contact your freight forwarder to explore all your options.

• Explore Bonded Warehouses: If goods cannot arrive before July 30th, consider redirecting them to a U.S. bonded warehouse, bypassing U.S. Customs, where they can be stored without immediate tariff payment until you can identify better tariff options.

Meanwhile, cover your flanks:

• Advocate for Exemptions: Partner with trade groups like the Consumer Brands Association for consumer-packaged goods, which successfully lobbied for exemptions. Or contact the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) to join advocacy efforts for fair trade.

• Demonstrate Economic Harm: Compile data showing how tariffs threaten sales, profits, jobs and supply chains. Raising prices to offset a 145% or 30% tariff is not a reliable competitive strategy, and will result in economic loss or bankruptcy. Make the case.

• Leverage Political Connections: Reach out to local news-makers, law-makers or Trump trade-team members directly, like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick via public channels. And sign on to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s efforts to call on the president for immediate tariff relief.

Now is also the time to review your business model, pricing, customer loyalty and sales channels. This is what I meant by heeding the warning shot across the bow. For small businesses that rely on Chinese products and supplies, 30% tariffs may be the new norm. If that makes your products un-competitive look for alternative sources, like Made in America.

If you can’t find cost-effective suppliers here on American soil, just follow your manufacturer. Many Chinese producers are setting up shop outside China to avoid high tariffs.

• Build Strategic Alliances: Partner with competitors or suppliers to share tariff-related costs, such as joint volume purchasing from non-Chinese markets.

• Mitigate Chinese Supplier Dependency: This means to embrace the USMCA agreement with duty free products from Canada and Mexico if at all possible. Or if cheaper products are super important to your customers, expand your import horizons to lower-tariff “friend-shoring” countries like India (27%), Thailand (7.5%) and Malaysia (6.1%) among others. We all know that shifting long entrenched supply chains is not easy. That’s where the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (ITA) can assist you in finding and vetting new suppliers. Call them.

Finally, listen up! These crazy ever-changing tariffs on goods from China are more than a mere nuisance. They could be the new norm.

So stock up now or find new lower-cost suppliers in places like Mexico or India. And better still, don’t overlook Made in America options. Many Americans will pay more for them. After all, that’s the key point Trump is trying to make. But either way, if you don’t prepare before August 2025, you could face skyrocketing import prices, which could easily put you out of business for good.

So what are you going to do?

You’re going to get your goods in, push for exemptions, and start looking beyond China for answers! That’s my “do it now” advice.

Make sense?

Rick

Do you remember your first elementary school Report Card? I do. I still have an old one, faded blue cardboard with hand-written Cs and Ds. I was a difficult child.

But did you ever wish you could give your teacher a report card instead?

This is my take on doing exactly that. A post-election review and assessment of our 47^th president from the people, politics and markets worldwide he’s rocked to the core inside the first 30 days of his new administration.

They say you get what you voted for. And while the ground shaking agenda Trump has embarked on lends confidence for business leaders early on, it’s the president’s base that tallies the real grades.

Here’s what I mean.

As of this writing, what started with a loud bang has faded. Trump’s popularity is slipping. As markets once flirted with all-time highs, Trump’s handling of the US economy in a recent Reuters poll shows more Americans disapprove of his approach leaping 10 points from 36% to 47% disapproval rate since his Jan 20^th 2025, inaugural day.

One the other hand, the recent Conference Board CEO Survey shows CEOs “were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions” in 2025 and have moved from Cautious Optimism to Confident about the outlook this year.

More than 70% plan to raise wages by 3% which explains in part why the stock market is reaching past the mixed news to new highs.

But there is a growing sense of caution. A drop in Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ mid-month Flash Index) in February from 52.9 to 49.7 marks the lowest since 2023. Any figure below 50 indicates contraction. Meanwhile, “uncertainty levels” are spiking  across the economy and consumer confidence as tracked by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey just released has flipped to a 15-month low. Which begs the question: Is Trump dragging the economy into Recession, or worse, Stagflation?

The short answer is Maybe. One key indicator is the declining Housing Starts figures down 10% in January. Did you know Housing permit-drops preceded a recession in 8 out of last 9 recessions since World War II? Yikes!

So what’s going on?

It seems as if American business leaders either have their collective heads in the ground or have their lips on the Kool-Aid glass, punch drunk on the outlook of longer-term wins, and willing to accept the short-term chaos to get them.

Still, 55% of CEOs do acknowledge “geopolitical instability” as their #1 high-impact risk to business conditions this year. But for now, if you ask Captain John Smith of the RMS Titanic about the economy, it’s… ‘What iceberg? Full steam ahead’!

All this oscillating up and down is enough to make me sea-sick trying to follow it but does have a common square root denominator sitting in the oval office, pulling levers and pushing buttons behind a curtain like the Great Oz.  

Some say issuing a Trump report card at this early stage is absurd, like judging a race before the starting gun. And I agree. But, I did it anyway.

Let’s see if you agree:

In his first 30+ days on the job, Trump has signed more than 70 executive orders on his way to the 220 he signed in his first term. As a consequence, the administration has already issued more than 30,000 ‘Your Fired’ pink slips to federal employees, cut fed-funding for dozens of domestic and international programs, rolled back more than 1200 regulations, put reciprocal tariffs on all countries that tariff US imports, closed the border to undocumented migrants and made friends with Putin. That’s a lot!

Like no administration in decades the Trump team has left no stone unturned. And so given his progress on several key issues here’s my assessment of his handling of these subjects thus far.

You be the judge.

DOGE – Don’t Overlook Getting Eliminated

B+

 I gave him a B+ here because the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon, is claiming it’s identified more than $55 billion in savings. While supporters applaud the efforts to streamline government and reduce spending, critics worry about disrupted services and hasty disruptive decision-making.

Key departments like Health and Human Services, Veterans Affairs, and the IRS have seen significant workforce reductions. But the initiative’s long-term impact remains uncertain, with legal challenges mounting and concerns about essential services growing. Americans are divided, weighing potential efficiency gains against the human cost and service disruptions of these sweeping overhauls.

Only time will tell if DOGE will hit the mark. Midterm elections will be the first big test in 2026 in my view. In the meanwhile, it’s buckle-up time America – this roller-coaster is just getting started.

Trade Tariffs & Inflation

C-

This grade comes in mixed on the downside. Before the elections Trump promised several things to get the US back on track and among them was reducing inflation. Americans want prices to go down, not up. But that’s easier said than done given the current state of uncertainty. Trump is insisting on a 20% tariff on China, a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a “reciprocal” tariff on everybody else, which is fair in my view, but potentially inflationary as prices will increase on key imports like autos and raw material commodities.

At this time with a 2.9% year over year inflation rate the U.S. Federal Reserve refuses to lower its benchmark Fed Funds rate any further as I had hoped for in my article2025: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Year Ahead published by CEO World where citing the last mile down to 2% target is going to be a tough haul. That said, this leaves us at the mercy of market pricing dynamics whereby we are unlikely to see inflation fall much further this year experts say.

Immigration Crackdown

C+

“It’s the most difficult problem,” Trump said in a recent White House governors’ luncheon. Millions of people have crossed the southern border, many with criminal, gang, and drug cartel backgrounds. Enough is enough in so many words, regardless of right or wrong Trump has in his first month authorized ICE to pursue and deport the bad apples asap. This is a tough call. Some like the aggressive stance others are taking hits to their bottom line.

He deployed 1,000 troops to the southern border, re-instated his “Remain in Mexico” policy, and broadened the scope of deports for undocumented immigrants. The sudden crackdown is sending shockwaves across Mexican communities and industries like agriculture and construction that employ migrant labor but also including a big reduction in the number of street vendors who see themselves as easy targets for ICE in many US cities: exactly what voters wanted.

Russia/Ukraine war

D

Personally, I would prefer to give Trump an F for failure as American witnessed a stunning line of reasoning by Trump recently when he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator for not holding elections, and the one who started the war. Needless to say, these remarks set the internet on fire appealing to Zelensky’s defense, and flipping the EU and NATO on its side, giving notice that Americans are done funding Europe’s defense, end of story.

Meanwhile Trump is dead set on ending the war despite his offer to help Ukraine if Zelensky agrees to repay the American people with Ukraine’s abundant natural rare-earth minerals used in electronics, batteries and computers in a deal that would reduce our reliance on China. I like that idea.

But Zelensky said the deal didn’t go far enough yet to secure Ukraine from a future attack he firmly believes will come from a re-armed Putin in time.

The bottom-line Trumps says is getting a return on the billions Americans spent on defending Ukraine, but the bull in the China shop approach has ruffled the feathers of America’s allies in NATO and given pause to America’s leadership and logic on the global stage. This approach in my view is completely wrong, and I anticipate Trump will need to back off the unproductive rhetoric before Ukraine can agree to any ceasefire deal.

Trumps Overall Summary Assessment

C-

This is my overall grade for Trump at this early stage. And from the look of things when you add it all up, Trump’s report card is likely to get him grounded from playing golf on weekends by mom and dad, or other hobbies until he gets his grades up, as I had to do back in the day.

Still. The economy looks resilient despite Trump’s inaugural era of uncertainty. Unemployment rate at 4.0% is the lowest since 2019 and among the lowest in decades. That’s a welcome support beam.

When people have jobs the US economy grows, which means if you can navigate the shifting landscape your business and our GDP will grow as well, which may explain the intoxicated CEO confidence.

On the other hand, if consumer confidence continues to slide and Americans get spooked, as I see is occurring now, more employers will lay-off workers as customers pull back spending and wait for calmer seas. And that could portend a recession later this year if we’re not careful.

—–

In conclusion, the way I see it, Trump’s second term has started off with a flurry of activity and controversy. His aggressive approach to right-sizing government efficiency, trade, immigration, and foreign policy has yielded mixed results, and divided reactions. While business leaders express optimism, public opinion and economic indicators are flashing signs of caution.

As we move forward, it’s crucial to monitor how these early decisions impact long-term economic stability, global partnerships, and social cohesion within the United States.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether Trump’s bold strategies will lead to sustainable growth and improved conditions for Americans, or if they will result in increased uncertainty and a potential economic downturn.

Ultimately, the true measure of the President’s second term will depend on how well his administration can balance its ambitious agenda with the complex realities of governance and the diverse needs of the American people. And despite my tough grades, I’m still hopeful and optimistic.

What say you? How would you grade Trump’s performance at this point?

Rick.

—-

About the author: Rick Andrade is an investment banker and market advisor in Los Angeles, Ca, where he helps CEOs and business owners buy, sell, and finance middle-market companies. Rick earned his BA and MBA from UCLA, along with his Series 7, 63, & 79 FINRA securities licenses. He is also a CA Real Estate Broker and blogs at www.RickAndrade.com on issues important to business owners. He can be reached at rickandrade.com.

Article by Rick Andrade – as published by CEO World Magazine – December 2024

That was fast! 2024 seemed to buzz right past us. And if you blinked, you may have missed quite a few history-making events, not to mention a historic Presidential re-election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th US President.

Only one other president in American history skipped a term. President Grover Cleveland won first in 1884 and again after defeating President Ben Harrison in 1892. What’s more, Cleveland’s wife, First Lady Frances Cleveland, historically told White House staff not to hastily remove anything; they’d be back.

Grover Cleveland was a rebel and known for his honesty, integrity, and commitment to fiscal and political reforms much needed at the time. Cleveland wanted a massive reset in government eliminating operating inefficiencies, waste, corruption and patronage staffing mismanagement.

Sound familiar? 

Given the vast scope of Trump’s ambitious plans and promises to improve our nation in 2025, it’s needless to say the best way to think about a Trump 2nd term is — “unpredictable but promising. “

Trump is a wildcard. He is a businessman – a transactional deal-making character with little political skill or patience for political party agendas, and maybe that’s exactly what America needs right now: another Clint Eastwood on horseback riding into town.

And in Trump-town, the law of the land is Economic Nationalism, with little tolerance for ideological distractions that may spoil the ride.

That doesn’t mean there’s no plan. On the contrary, the Trump team is expected to hit the ground running day-one January 20th with a flurry of new Executive Orders.

So, I thought now is a good time to summarize Trump’s 2nd term economic proposals that might have the biggest impact on CEO and business leadership plans in 2025.

I call it — The Good, The Bad and The Ugly … same as the beloved Clint Eastwood western classic film, but this time it’s Trump playing the crusty wide brimmed, cocksure ‘Blondie.’

Have a look.

The Good: Lower lending costs, Tax cuts & Deregulation 

Lower lending costs 

As of the latest news the US Federal Reserve will end 2024 having lowered its Federal Funds Rate yet another .25% points to 4.25% citing a good labor market and inflation rates that are considerably lower since Covid. That means the cost of capital and risk lending to most middle-market companies with good credit may drop, or at least hold steady in 2025. This bodes well to further goose economic expansion, M&A and IPO activity. So get ready to join the party.  Next up…

Tax cuts 

In 2017 at the beginning of Trump’s first term, Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which lowered corporate tax rates from 35% to 21% until it expires on December 31, 2025.

Trump has already vowed to extend those cuts and to eliminate tax on Social Security checks, hospitality tips, and over-time pay among others. And further he proposes to reduce corporate tax rates down to 15% as an incentive if companies agree to re-shore manufacturing and production activities back to the US.

And while this is very favorable for job seekers, waiters and retirees, it could catch most consumers off-guard if “Made in America” products cost more, and tariffs increase the price of imports as economists expect. More on that later.

Deregulation 

Wasting no time, on December 5th 2024 the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) took the initiative and assembled more than a 100 signatures representing a bevy of industry leaders in fossil fuels, food, chemicals, industrials, transportation, textiles, technology and more. Even the RV industry motored in.

All want the same thing, faster permitting and less costly time-wasting regulatory compliance burdens and restrictive oversight. And Trump is listening.

In fact he’s already established a new unofficial government agency called DOGE (Dept of Government Efficiency) headed by Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, you may have heard of them.

“Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies,” Trump said in a statement he posted online. That’s almost incredible!

Assuming any one of these top three Good measures make headway to reduce the cost of business, bureaucracy and delays the US economy and your business and millions more will likely benefit. This means for most of us it’s time to saddle up and think big in 2025.

Unless you’re in the line of fire.

The Bad: Tariffs and Deporting illegal workers 

Tariffs 

In 1789 the very 1st US Congress passed the Tariff Act of 1789. It was designed to promote trade and collect money to run the government. Then as now a third reason according to first treasury secretary Alexander Hamilton was to protect America’s struggling manufacturing sector from offshore import competition, and grow our then fledgling industrial base from within. Of course, for every dream there’s an arm-pinching reality check.

Tariffs have consequences. 

A year later American consumers began to feel the pinch from higher prices. The imported goods they wanted cost more, which triggered the earliest known government-triggered price inflation. That could happen again.

Trump’s current Tariff proposal includes a 60% – 100% tariff on all goods from China, and 10%-20% from all other countries. Given the billions spent on Chinese products by American consumers year after year, this could spell big trouble if you source exclusively from Asia. I would advise finding alternative suppliers or be ready for a major price increase starting as early as January.

Trump argues these nations’ exports are given unfair advantages at lower costs that makes their products cheaper, and threatens US jobs. The guilty parties not only include China, but also imports from neighbors Canada and Mexico, which both export lower cost autos, electronics and petroleum products to the US.

As a result, if you are currently importing from these nations talk with your suppliers. Pencil out a plan for how to split the cost of any new tariff, because it’s the importer who pays the tax and many suppliers don’t want to lose your business. Just know your limits. Next one is a biggie…

Deporting illegal immigrants 

Trump ran for office on this issue. He believes that America is suffering because too many immigrants have crossed the Mexican border illegally. These folks from all over the world have stolen jobs and driven up municipal crime, healthcare costs and housing shortages he says.

To stem the problem Trump plans to immediately upon entering office Jan 20th  2025 implement a major national deportation round-up and expulsion of undocumented criminal immigrants. Some estimates are in the millions, but this remains to be seen. Still, the fear of deportation alone can send shock waves across the immigrant landscape as many jobs in manual labor sectors use lower cost foreign labor to build and service American industries.

A sudden absence of millions of illegal workers will likely place a tough labor burden on those businesses, and right or wrong they will have to increase prices to pay for the higher cost of labor replacements and shortages, if they can even find new replacement workers.

This is probably the scariest of Trumps proposals for small and medium sized businesses across the country, but especially in the west like California whose $60 billion agriculture industry in 2024 relies heavily on migrants, legal or not. Lastly –

The Ugly: growing geo-conflicts  

“There is nothing good in war except it’s ending,” said President Lincoln.

We all know war is ugly. We also know war is costly. Costly in lives, homes, cities, and sacrifice. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East add little more than destruction to our one-people one-planet condition. And that has to change.

For America the cost of war is explicit, $53 billion to Ukraine another $18 billion to Isreal. Both fighting existential battles. But Americans grow weary of wars which means the gravy train could get derailed.

Americans want those billions spent at home. And by electing Trump, they’ve given him a “no more war” spending mandate, which has compelled him to promise a quick end to the hostilities and senseless loss of life and money. But it may already be too late.

According to Alexander Mertens, a professor of finance at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy in Ukraine, even if Trump does nothing, Russia is operating as a wartime economy. If Putin ends the war abruptly, the Russian economy could collapse, triggering untold global calamities. It’s already under extreme economic pressure from Western sanctions, which have been tightening the noose since 2022. And the stakes are growing. Game over if it goes badly.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Trump has no better hand to play.

With the most recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, a geopolitical vacuum has been created, which inevitably portends yet another powder keg for Israel, the region, and the globe as former ISIS leaders take control.

The good news is be it Russia or the Middle East, unlike the 1970s energy crisis, today, thanks to shale oil fracking in the Midwest we’re now the world’s #1 petro-producer — extracting more than 13 million barrels oil per day, enough to moderate energy inflation shocks in 2025.

What’s more, the real ugliness for America’s businesses and consumers is not the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East but rather the growing military escalation between the US and China over Taiwan.

Under Biden, China perceives the US as a weak, reluctant superpower that will not interfere should Beijing choose to invade and absorb the renegade democratic island province.

Trump’s victory on the other hand may have stalled that aggression. Trump knows well that any attack on Taiwan will disrupt computer chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor’s operations, and catastrophically impede US goods mfg. which will tank the US stock market. And Trump is a big fan of a rising US stock market.

So, what’s the bottom line here? 

Well. Despite all the risks, to say I’m optimistic is still an understatement. If Trump can out-gun the bad and ugly obstacles in 2025, it could be the beginning of a long-awaited multiyear animal spirits stretch of solid economic growth not seen since JFK/LBJ grew annual GDP 5% from 1961-1968.

And I’m not alone. The most recent NFIB Small Business Optimism Index topped a 3yr high, and the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index was the strongest in more than 2 years!

Will it all hold up? Maybe. Hard to know.

But I really like Blondie’s chances in this flick.

Happy Holidays!

---

Written by Rick Andrade.

Is Remote Work Dead?

It was only a few years ago when working remote seemed all the rage. An endless stream of articles all proclaiming the end of big cities, traffic jams and office politics as Covid forced us all to stay home, and away from each other.

Remember the predictions, the future of work was from anywhere: home, beach, mountains or Mars?

All you needed was a laptop w/camera and an internet connection. And thanks to modern conferencing and collaboration technologies like Skype, FaceTime, Slack, Zoom, Google Hangouts and MS Teams the dream of remote work seemed at last a real utopian possibility. No more wasted time on the road to and from, no more expensive lunches, dry cleaning bills, or weekly gasoline fill-ups. No more politics or sleepy meetings: A dream come true for most of us.

But like the weather – times change. It’s been 4 years. And Covid is behind us.

What has come to be known as the largest Work From Home (WFH) era productivity experiment of all time — has ended, and the results are in. Your CEO wants you back, all hands RTO (Return to Office), or else!

Why now?

For many of us WFH is a woven part of our daily lives. And it works, or so we thought.

But in a recent letter to all Amazon employees CEO Andy Jassy officially ended the company’s hybrid flex schedule and ordered a full 5-day RTO work week. Jassy says being in-office strengthens culture, facilitates collaboration, brainstorming and creativity enhances innovation.

In response, the crew cries foul! The full-time RTO mandate is a broken promise, and management needs to reconsider the consequences. But Jassy, staunchly upright like a winning coach looking at a losing season is unfazed by distraction:

“We understand that some of our teammates may have set up their personal lives in such a way that returning to the office consistently five days per week will require some adjustments. To help ensure a smooth transition, we’re going to make this new expectation active on January 2, 2025.”

Huh? Yikes!

That sounds a lot like there’s little room for discussion and you best come back full time, or else don’t come back at all.

Sound too harsh? Too old school maybe? Turns out he’s not alone.

A new KPMG consulting firm survey (Jul-Aug 2024) of 1,325 CEOs in 11 countries revealed a whopping 80% of them believe their hybrid workforce will be nearly 100% back in the office full time over the next 3 years! And how is that working out?

If you ask the troops, the troops are not happy about it. They sound back with a simple question: Why force workers back to the office 100% full time when part time was good enough?

According to an Accenture global study 83% of global workers prefer a hybrid work model.

Doesn’t that mean that a full time 100% RTO mandate could backfire?

Some staffers say it’s Budget Season (corporate budgeting for 2025) and RTO is a quiet RIF (reduction in force), a chance to reduce staff via attrition rather than implementing more expensive layoffs next year.

Others, for starters cite the cost of going back into the office more specifically. Not only does working from home offer a better work-life balance, but it also saves workers a boat-load of real dough in monthly expenses.

If you do the legwork like I did for instance you’ll find the average US worker spends roughly $30/day to venture back into the office, including things like morning coffee, lunch, gasoline, dry-cleaners, car washes, personal grooming, etc, all averaged in.

As a result, a Full-time RTO costs on average $600 per month (20-days x $30) to work in an office full time. But that can also easily top $1000/month per worker in California where I live. Childcare and pet care alone can add hundreds.

That’s still $7,200-$12,000 each year in extra out-of-pocket expenses per staffer to join hands in the conference room once a day in order to prove they’re obviously happier, more creative, productive brainstormers inside a glass building. That’s a tough sell in my view.

So now what… ?

Well, according to Stanford Economist Nick Bloom it’s not a winner take all, the sweet spot is actually in the middle, and the research pans out. It’s the Hybrid Remote Workforce Model.

In Bloom’s research, the hybrid remote worker model which includes fewer than 4 days in the office showed a zero effect on worker productivity, and dramatically boosted employee retention rates. The results are essentially at odds with the Amazon decision, Bloom adding:

“If managed right, letting employees work from home two or three days a week still gets you the level of mentoring, culture-building, and innovation that you want.”

Which begs the only question, where’s the bullseye on the dart board? Is it two days or three?

Owl Labs, a remote video conferencing company in Boston produces an annual State of Hybrid Work report which surveys 2000 employees across various industries in the U.S. every year. And after you read their latest 2024 survey results you’ll say like I did, the answer is 3!

Three days in the office. That’s the ideal hybrid remote worker model that neither minimizes CEO concerns nor burns through employee trade-offs entirely. Each side gives a little.

It’s the perfect give and take compromise that every CEO should seriously consider during this budget season with an added thought.

Remote work is here to stay, and companies that embrace the model, without compromising efficiencies or profits will prevail as workers seek foremost a career that offers them life-balancing and cost saving flexibility.

And for those who deeply find the very idea of any RTO dreadfully life-ending, consider your financial contribution the good news… The Hybrid model will help local economies, local jobs, and local people.

Companies like coffee shops, flower shops, corner pharmacies, restaurants, dry cleaners, car washes, gas stations and all the rest do benefit substantially from the hybrid RTO.

When Covid shut down the US economy the loss to Main Street shops was devastating, and many small businesses hit hard have yet to recover pre-pandemic foot traffic and sales. So, in a real practical sense RTO mandates promise to throw them a life-line.

According to Statista statistics, 53% of all workers are working hybrid hours. Some say the figure is higher others say lower.

Nonetheless, if there are as noted by the Labor Dept (BLS) nearly 170 million total US workers and 50% work RTO 3-days per week we can estimate the total annual impact at stake in local sales based upon the monthly expenses each staffer will likely spend to return to the office… which averages $600/month. From here the math is simple.

85 million hybrid workers x 3-days/week (156 days/year) x $32/day = $424 Billion – at the low end.

That’s an eye-popping figure and a darned good reason to get people’s butts back behind bars.

Still. Employees argue that any management team demanding a 100% full-time RTO is all dollars and cents, and hasn’t put a figure to the inherent soft cost/benefits employees enjoy most.

And that looks bad.

So it seems the workforce is poised at the cross-roads. Is it the 5-day RTO mandate road ahead like Amazon is calling for, or the 3-day remote worker hybrid model?

I say, the evidence is in. CEOs and business owners should closely consider the ideal 3-day hybrid workweek schedule as they budget headcount for 2025. Especially as the model is quickly becoming a competitive advantage in the hunt for new talent.

In a nutshell, I believe the hybrid model is the future work, and is a solid middle-ground work/life balance compromise that both sides can live with, even Amazon.

Do you disagree?

Top 10 remote jobs (Forbes)

1. Computer & IT
2. Accounting & Finance
3. Marketing
4. Medical & Health
5. Project Management
6. Customer Service
7. Sales
8. Administrative
9. HR & Recruiting
10. Operations

The most common remote jobs in 2023 (Forbes)

1. Accountant
2. Executive Assistant
3. Financial Analyst
4. Project Manager
5. Customer Service Representative
6. Software Engineer
7. Customer Success Manager
8. Accounting Manager
9. Product Designer
10. Writer

Rick.

—-

About the author: Rick Andrade is an investment banker and market advisor in Los Angeles, Ca, where he helps CEOs and business owners buy, sell, and finance middle-market companies. Rick earned his BA and MBA from UCLA, along with his Series 7, 63, & 79 FINRA securities licenses. He is also a CA Real Estate Broker and blogs at www.RickAndrade.com on issues important to business owners. He can be reached at rickandrade.com.

Absolutely, according to a recent analysis.

Wait! What?

For the past two years I have written about younger Americans especially millennials struggling to put food on the table and blaming Baby Boomers, politics and the wealth-gap for their ill-fated attempts to accumulate cash and rope in the American Dream.

Their notable doom and gloom are front and center on social media these days, especially Tiktok where we find endless streams of struggling workers and families with often tearful cries for help.

But then, like a blast of cold water in the face a recent article (April 24th 2024) from the Center for American Progress.org (CAP) entitled: Wealth of Younger Americans Is Historically High shocked me upright and spilled my coffee!

According to CAPs research Americans under 40 aren’t suffering at all! In fact, these upstarts they say have increased their net worth since the pandemic by $85,000 to $259,000 from 2019-2023. What? Yes. Read the article:

“Due to a historic economic recovery, inflation-adjusted wealth for younger Americans has grown 49 percent since right before the pandemic—a positive trend following decades of stagnation.”

Are you kidding me?

How can this be right? Of all the reports of younger Americans infuriated about the high cost of living what are we to believe?

I contacted the authors and they are sticking to it. They cite evidence from the US Federal Reserve:  Distribution of Household Wealth in the U.S. since 1989 as the source. That shows an increase in wealth by age-cohort and when I reviewed it… there it was!

In macro figures the data denotes the wealth distribution by age group in America has grown in each class from the bottom 50% to the top .01% and shows that the accumulated wealth for all Americans increased post Covid, particularly after the US government injected billions into the economy during Covid.

Moreover, they argue that given all the capital injected into the US economy and the appreciation of asset values post pandemic, younger Americans benefited the most (up 49%) with the majority of the $85,000 net wealth increase coming from these categories since 2019:

• Home ownership values increased: $22,000 (yes under 40 own homes!)
• Bank deposits increased: $9,000 (Covid relief plus higher wage jobs)
• Stock & mutual fund values increased: $31,000 (S&P markets have gone up, a lot!)
• Single-owner business values increased: $10,000
• Consumer big-ticket durables (cars, appliances, etc): $7,000
• Decrease in consumer debts: $5,000

And while I might be living on another planet, which often feels the case, I think our economy since Covid has bifurcated into the top 50% vs the bottom 50%. And the bottom half is losing!

Take for example the increase in credit card delinquencies, or the high costs of mortgage interest/rates, or the skyrocketing rents and the stubbornly high rates we see in insurances, food and gas prices, all conspicuously evident in inflation reports and from hundreds of online social media posts and news articles looking at the same younger Americans the CAP and the Fed say are richer! So which half are they measuring?

Amiee Picchi posted an article last September for CBS News citing the US Census which notes that 4 of 10 workers are struggling to pay bills despite higher wages since 2020. She writes;

“Although pay increases are staying ahead of inflation this year, low- and middle-wage workers have generally not kept up with the cost of living over the prior four decades.”

So. Who is the government measuring here — Younger workers who own homes, businesses and have stock portfolios? Maybe in Washington, but not in California. I don’t buy it. 

Needless to say, the real wealthy Americans also got richer since 2019, a lot richer. But that’s not the point. Other stats show the gap between rich and poor wider than ever. And despite the growth in younger Americans’ net wealth according to the data, the CAP article insensitively misses the key point entirely!

With the coming election a lot is at stake. And if we are ever to get back on healthier footing and narrow the wealth gap, we need to start by understanding who the bottom 50% are and how to identify the data and write reports that reflect their reality on the ground.

Issuing reports that imply younger working Americans shouldn’t complain because they’re richer than before Covid is asinine to me (pardon my French).

So, what’s the take-away here? You tell me. Is government blind to the obvious?

Are you seeing younger working Americans under 40 growing richer since Covid? Or are you seeing them struggle like never before under the weight of a disproportional achievement system as I see it?

What’s your view?

—

About the author: Rick Andrade is an investment banker at Janas Associates in Pasadena, Ca, where he helps CEOs and business owners buy, sell, and finance middle-market companies. Rick earned his BA and MBA from UCLA, along with his Series 7, 63, & 79 FINRA securities licenses. He is also a CA Real Estate Broker, a volunteer SBA/SCORE instructor, and blogs at www.RickAndrade.com on issues important to business owners.

RJA@JanasCorp.com. Please note this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered in any way an offer to buy or sell a security. Securities are offered through JCC Capital Markets LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC

As published by Rick Andrade – CEOWORLD Magazine

If you haven’t been keeping up on the day-to-day developments in 2024, this year may be one to remember.

America is facing an historic point of inflection. Social media is tipping the balance in favor of the many voices collectively at odds with the status quo. There’s no one group. They hail from all walks. They are the American workforce. Remember them?

Call it A.I., call it a post-covid back-to-office worker recall, call it cost-savings, call it “the year of efficiency,” call it a response to a murky 2024 economic outlook, there’s no over-looking the headlines:

Massive worker layoffs from dozens of companies are sending seismic shockwaves across the entire American labor landscape, especially well-educated workers, where confidence is low.

It’s not like they can’t find work, they can if they lower their expectations, especially college grads who struggle to land a job that pays the bills and their student loans. It’s more about not loving the job you have and not trusting your employers to have your best interests in the plan.

Did you know that the number of unhappy dissatisfied Americans according to a 2023 Gallop survey is near a record high?

A whopping 80% of Americans are “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the US right now. Add to this growing voice of malcontents a cocpahopny of other dismal headlines and the message is front page bold font; It’s not working!

Meanwhile social media is busy reminding us every day of exactly what’s wrong. The increasing homeless rate in America is off the charts, home ownership is a distant dream for young people, everything costs more, food, rent, gas, utilities, car payments, insurance, and interest rates at benchmark highs. Consumers now carry more than $1 Trillion in credit card debt, a new all-time record.

According to Reality Check: The Paycheck-To-Paycheck Report, 50% of consumers live paycheck to paycheck, and 70% of consumers have less than $15,000 in savings, many have less than $1,000. Moreover, our national debt is now 120% of our GDP, our cities are falling apart, and we’re more divided politically and financially en mass from one another than ever before it seems.

Heard any of this rant before?

Enter social scientist historian and author Peter Turchin who begged the question; Does history rhyme or repeat itself?

In his most recent book, End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration (2023), Turchin, professor of social dynamics at the University of Connecticut analyzes the causes and consequences of social and political instability in the United States and other countries over the arc of time. He argues that the main drivers of this instability are the “elite overproduction” aka too many college grads, the marginalization of worker wages and consequential accumulation of profits by the rich at the expense of the working class.

Citing historical patterns whereby societal “elites” so engorge themselves with riches and social power they cause the societies they control to revolt, and tear the house down. Over and over whenever, wherever elite factions form the outcome for the “common man” is the same, gloomy.

And yet, while the symptoms of mass discontent and societal distress are everywhere lately, the “elites” don’t seem to mind it much.

So, who are these elites? Am I an elite? Are you?

It may surprise you but the elites are not all the latte-sipping, BMW-driving, monied rich people clogging the drive-thru. Elites are select members of society that control the 4 key pillars of power: military, economic, political and ideological.

Elites control and/or influence each of these pillars to protect, concentrate and funnel the flow of profits and power to themselves, Turchin outlines. And more starkly, they will do whatever it takes to keep it that way, resulting in clashes between themselves and with the rest of us.

Whether you agree or not Turchin puts up a good fight. His tracking data includes 300 historic case studies fed through a scientific model looking for patterns, which is exactly what machine learning does to help predict things. In this case the prediction is not good. It appears that like the boom and bust of the business cycle, human societies have them as well.

Unfortunately, Turchin concludes America and much of the world population is stressed out, and signs are evident he notes that many societies are approaching another end time in their current social cycle and looking for dramatic change.

So, are we headed for imminent collapse? American big cities could be, homeless in Modesto, CA now live in caves! News video you have to see to believe.

But if you’re a born skeptic, Turchin lays it out for you:

“When a state, such as the United States, has stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, declining public trust, and exploding public debt, these seemingly disparate social indicators are actually indicators of looming political instability.”

Ok. So why should we care?

·        The American Revolution (1776)

·        The French Revolution (1789)

·        The American Civil War (1861)

·        The Russian Revolution (1917)

·        The Chinese Revolution (1949)

·        The Iranian Revolution (1979)

Get the idea? And what’s more, each of these major disruptions had a “trigger” event. Which is how most uprisings start.

You’ll remember:

·        The Boston Tea Party (1773)

·        The Storming of the Bastille (1789)

· The Bombardment of Fort Sumter (1861)

·        The Easter Monday Rising (1916)

·        The Fall of the Berlin Wall (1989)

Each event had a common thread. Unhappy disaffected marginalized groups, mostly middle and lower working-class earners and families who felt then as they do now reason to join and embrace the contemporary cries of the unheard “common man.”

Combined with other disaffected groups they together form a united front dead set on tossing out the old bastards and ushering in anything new, as long as it’s different.

Unfortunately, change for the better rooted and stemmed from a raw emotionally-driven compulsively kinetic force for change doesn’t always end well either. Caveat emptor as was the case in Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia and a host of other communist and fascist-run countries last century.

Still here we are again, walking along a well punctuated historic precipice in the dark and asking; How close to the edge are we, anybody know?

Well let me tell you, Turchin warns, we are once more in a “pre-revolutionary stage” in America he says.

“When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied.”

Frenzied? You mean despite all the seemingly good “macro” economic news such as historically low unemployment, millions of open jobs and record-high stock market levels, there’s still something under the bed?

Current macro measures don’t tell the whole story, they tend to mask and distract from it. I love it when my IRA goes up, and isn’t that the whole point?

Since 1950 the S&P 500 stock index grew from 17 points to more than 5,000 in the 73 years since, that’s a cool 29,000% rise, and a pathway to wealth, if you owned stocks.

Meanwhile America’s birthrate is half what it was in 1950, and the wealth divide is a disturbing gulf-so wide that by any measuring tool you can’t see the other side. And it’s not going unnoticed. Younger workers are asking; what’s in it for me? Who am I in this profit-driven machine? Why am I doing this?

And elites should take note. Facebook, Instagram and TikTok are each brimming with video testimonials of laid-off workers and disaffected often homeless American citizens who cannot make ends meet in our current economic system. And they are garnering millions of “likes and views.”

So, what do we say to them? Work harder?

In 2023 the top 10% of Americans owned 66% of all household assets. By contrast, the lowest 50% of Americans owned just 2.6% of total assets. Yikes! I hope nobody reads that. Which means most of us work just to live day to day, have little savings and own next to nothing. And regardless of the why, to these Americans it altogether sounds a lot more like living under the hand-outs of an elite Oligarchy than a free market Democracy.

But don’t such things in America always ‘regress to the mean’ as they say, come back down from the frenzied froth and fix themselves over time?

No. Because as the wealth gap grows wider and elites continue to restrict who can enter the golden realm, social media readily feeds the frenzied up-and-coming worker bee a cold dish of the American Dream. Call them what you may, but unless things change Turchin argues we’re doomed to repeat history.

Meanwhile, given the course of western capitalism up to now a massive reset may be unstoppable. All we need to repeat history the data reveals is a “trigger event.”

A trigger event is any act that so outrages the masses they riot and protest, aka revolution, which is exactly what you never want to see. But it happens, again and again.

Like the Farmer rebellion happening now in Europe blocking streets with hundreds of tractors and farm equipment there to protest higher input costs, new Green Deal carbon taxes, and cheaper food import prices, all conspiring to drive them out of business they say. Regardless of who’s at fault, they blame their government, and their anger is real.

Back home we face several of our own trigger events. Would any of these surprise you?

·        A precipitous decline of big city law and order causes riots?

·        A massive un-timely layoff cohort that results in violent protests?

·        A nationwide backlash against immigrants resulting in military closure of the southern border?

·        A divisive and contested national election outcome redux?

And let’s not forget the newest, biggest bad Daddy of the them all – Artificial Intelligence.

Maybe artificial Intelligence is the final straw that breaks the camel’s back. [read my article A.I.- It’s Altogether Insane]. There are frightening developments.

Just this past week another devastating blow to the minions. Have you seen OpenAI’s new Sora text-to-video diffusion model? Sora can replicate realistic movie-quality videos of any imagination from a single line of descriptive text prompt in minutes. It’s a stunning new capability. Especially for the 1000s of digital artists, graphic designers, game designers, animators, photographers, editors and ad agency production crews who all find themselves staring at Sora’s videos eyes-wide, jaws-dropped and newly unemployed.

If AI technology does increase productivity as promised and eliminates swaths of human labor cognitive skillsets and talent as expected, a collective mass of millions of unemployed and under-skilled workers could be on the streets, very angry, and very determined to get back at the system that let them down.

According to Turchin’s recent article “When A.I. Comes for the Elites” he discusses how the A.I. revolution will affect the social power dynamics and the stability of societies. He argues that A.I. will create new challenges and opportunities for both the elites and the counter-elites, and that we need to develop a new social contract that can accommodate the changes brought on by A.I.

So, I got to thinking. A new social contract? Is it possible?

What if maybe… ahead of a radical profound violent trigger event to force profound changes, ‘We the people’ do hereby request business, government, educators and all Americans to come together to outline, plan and implement a rebalancing approach to capitalism that can encourage profits, but without the abrupt workforce-obliterating downsides of our free market system? Something better, and something big.

1933 FDR did something big. He introduced the ‘New Deal’ to America, a line from an election speech to the “forgotten man.” It wasn’t just one deal; it was a series of programs designed foremost to help the whopping 25% of unemployed citizens eat and find work during the Great Depression.

As it turned out despite the substantial tax increases, over the decade the New Deal did help America recover from the Depression. Without it the US economy may have collapsed, plunging our country into utter chaos and anarchy at the very threshold of World War II.

Instead, the New Deal in America was likely the single most important social reform at the right time and place to shape our great country and the future of all civilization.

The New Deal had a significant impact on the role of a federal government in American society, as it expanded its unprecedented authority and responsibility in regulating the economy by providing social welfare safety nets and promoting infrastructure development (aka: jobs).

And, let’s not forget the New Deal created four super key programs that America still relies on today:

·        Social Security

·        The national minimum wage

·        The SEC

·        The FDIC

They’re not perfect, but they were revolutionary at the time for us. Today they exist as cornerstones under our Constitution armed to protect citizens from the crippling side effects of unbridled capitalism. Which may be what we need to right the ship.

Despite the cynical distrust of big US government programs then and now, like it or not the New Deal did prove the US government could create, regulate, borrow, invest and spend on national interests including programs that got the unemployed compensated and eventually back to work, and not toward a revolution.

So. Why not another New Deal?

With a committed and focused team in Washington, We the People, can embark on the same ambitious plan and vision FDR had 90 years ago, and do it without another Revolution or a Depression.

Critics cry foul. They say any massive social reform like a New Deal would put America on a slippery slope to EU-style Socialism, right?

No. But a New Deal would require us to effectively dismantle decades of elite influences and power controls in place now. Which goes beyond government accountability alone. Because it’s not the 1930s.

This time it’s corporate America’s turn to step up and get on board.

American corporations and all employers including federal, state and local governments have become the mother’s milk of American civilian life. They are our de facto caretakers of the American working class. They control wages, healthcare, the environment, and the growth, prosperity or decline of many U.S. cities. The history of American companies moving our manufacturing base offshore chasing profits under the mantle of globalization 30 years ago is still a pile of rubble in many parts of our country. But times change, and so do people!

Turchin proposes the ultimate pipe-dream, some possible solutions to rebalance and restore our economic and social fabric. The outline of a New Deal, with not the intention to restrict profits per se, but rather how they are distributed. What do you think – can we:

·        Reduce the inequality gap by implementing progressive taxation and eliminating corporate loopholes

·        Increase social spending and promote more economic democracy

·        Reform the political system by limiting the influence of money and special interests

·        Increase representation and participation of the people in politics, not the money

·        Foster a common national identity, teach students the importance of being American

·        Require corporations to ramp up E.S.G., such as paying fair wages and taxes, investing in human capital re-training and innovation, supporting social and environmental causes, and becoming certified Benefit Corporations

·        Create new public assets by establishing sovereign wealth funds, digital dividends, or UBI: universal basic income, such that the benefits of economic growth and technological innovation can be more widely shared with all citizens

Sounds like a radical social rethink to me. And maybe it’s time. Do we have a choice?

Unfortunately, neither Congress nor the corner office is ready to embrace such sweeping reforms. Remember these are the elites. Their collective understanding of the issues must work to preserve the status quo, the pillars of power, and will likely listen more to industry lobbyists in the short term than risk their elite status by supporting radical longer term social fixes.

That’s why it’s always been up to the People to make changes happen. If it gets to the breaking point, we may need a radical painful capital re-alignment New Deal approach.

But in the meanwhile, I believe that with the concentrated efforts of business, government and schools we can “mind the gap” we can sell the American people on a New Deal framework just not all at once, but in bigger baby steps. It may not be too late. Americans are always hopeful given a fair chance to succeed.

We can do this by slowing the pace of dissatisfaction at the water cooler, getting ahead of employee malcontents and listening to their expectations for careers and life as one interconnected thing.

Let’s hire human capital consultants to redesign work flows. Let’s re-create jobs that have meaning, purpose, representation and longevity again.

Wharton professor Adam Grant who studies human capital development found that “employees who know how their work has a meaningful, positive impact on others are not just happier than those who don’t; they are vastly more productive.”

Because it’s not just a job anymore. In America, work is how we perceive ourselves, showcase our self-esteem and progress in life and culture. Something worth preserving. And in this way with new leaders on board we can divert and cool the blame-seeking destructive forces from embracing history as a guide for wholesale revolutionary change.

And if A.I. is the next existential threat looking to become the next revolutionary trigger event, let’s get ahead of it, cut it off at the pass, regulate it, and not let it run away with good jobs willy nilly like Globalization did in the 1990s.

If we want to survive as a free democracy, a Constitutional Republic that re-empowers the People we need to pay attention to the warning signs Turchin and others lay out for us. We need to take back control of our happiness, the American Dream and the definition of work.

We can start by un-electing our Washington elites who won’t listen to the voice for change this election season. We can reign in corporate conglomerate power and influence at the center of unaccountable labor displacements (layoffs). And we can force our educators and corporations to retrain our workforce to use AI as the helpful tool it was designed to be, not the job killer.

We must do this, now!

Because, if we don’t, it’s not the bright future for work or happiness or the American Dream we see coming in 2024, but rather the bleak beginning of America’s End Times.

As published by CEO world Magazine

The invention is as old as humanity. It’s older than religion, older than the pyramids, the great wall of China, older than the first written word. When exactly? Nobody knows. In fact, from the first unrecorded day in history when humans first gathered in markets to trade & sell food, furs, and sea shells on a string, we were ‘in business,’ and we never looked back!  

It’s a fascinating story on American soil too. Mansel Blackford, professor of History at Ohio State pulled it all together well for us in his book A History of Small Business in America. And it makes perfect sense in its simplest expression.

Essentially, from our inception and before in colonial times we hand-made what we needed and bought from small merchant importers all the rest.

A growing westward expansion then grew demand from farmers and ranchers and as small towns popped up across the frontier, so arrived the entrepreneurs to fill the demand. Among the most significant early businesses born of Manifest Destiny was the American Country Store.

These were, for the most part family run 7-11 stores, and anchor tenants joined by barbers, trade-smiths, hoteliers, saloon owners, bankers, and all the rest. And the key common feature most shared among them we often forget. Nearly all were family run operations.

It was this unrelenting expansion that would later become the origin and growth-driver for all entrepreneurial business owners across America. Opportunity was there for the taking. And so did follow the idyllic birth of the American Dream, and America’s Family Business legacy.

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By definition a family-owned business in America is one that has 2 or more family members at work there. Most are small businesses with humble goals, at least in the beginning. Put food on the table.

When I was a kid my forever handyman dad, for example (to earn extra money) had a landscaping company, a tree service company and a 20 x 15sft spot we rented every Sunday at the local outdoor flea market. If they cleared the snow in winter that weekend, we were there. We sold refurbished bicycles, lawnmowers, and anything else we could buy and repair from local junk dealers the week earlier.

It was altogether synonymous with hard work and no pay. Yet if not for the food, clothing, shelter, education, personal care and security my family provided me as a result, I may not have made better of myself and graduated from UCLA with a BA and MBA degrees and here now to help family businesses in America succeed. Mission accomplished dad!

Looking back decades later I’m grateful to have the early experience watching our family of six manage real customers, real schedules, real school, work and play commitments. Time management, team management, resource management and money management; All lessons learned at an early age in ours and any family business. You worked hard and pitched in where you were needed, and together you survived. No questions asked.

Today, as a business Advisor I still use the fundamentals I learned from my dad, but more importantly it helped me understand the people and relate to the pressures of running a family business day-in day-out, and why they do it.

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Did you know that family-owned businesses in America employ 60% of the US workforce, create 78% of all new jobs, and generate 64% of America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Those are some serious numbers!

And that’s what this is all about. Because the ‘family business’ needs some help and a wake-up call or else our “Country Stores,” America’s economic lifeblood, and the horse-power they provide to local communities across the nation may close for good.

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In their recent 2023 annual family business outlook survey by the global crisis communications firm, The Edelman Trust Institute, they found:

• Only 40% of family business owners say they and their families will be better off in 5-years, a 10-point decline from 2022

And worse, only 36% are more optimistic about their future.

Yikes! So why the staggering loss of confidence?

It turns out, post-Covid economic and social anxieties are the cause. A lack of civility and weakening social relations the Edelman report revealed. These eat away at the heart & soul of America’s family businesses whose trust in the economic and social outlook in America is declining and deflating their long-term confidence.

And yet when asked about why they stay in business, according to the The Family Enterprise USA 2023 Annual Family Business Survey:

79% said their family business is important because it’s part of the “family legacy,” which is coincidently also a part of America’s family legacy, and a beacon to the entrepreneurial spirit of dreamers around the globe.

However, according to research by the U.S. Small Business Administration(SBA)’s non-profit SCORE business advisory team:

• only 30% of family-owned businesses survive from the first to the second generation

And that’s because the odds are not in their favor. 20% of new businesses don’t survive the first year, and 50% don’t survive 5 years.

So. How can we help the family business survive the future?

Make no mistake some of the pain and pessimism is definitely self-inflicted. In my career I’ve discovered that many family businesses suffer from ‘island mentality,’ which is to say not easily accepting outside help. There are many reasons and high emotions behind this thinking, but the results are typically the same. Decline.

Many get their business heads stuck in the ground, and drag their feet when it comes time for technology and management team upgrades. According to The Family Business Center of Loyola in Chicago;

“Many best practices may well be at odds with the fundamental nature of most family

Companies.”

These things are expensive and disruptive, they argue. And family businesses in particular tend to avoid them as unneeded expenditures. That is until something goes wrong.

Is it worth it?

Well. It depends. If you get it right, it’s Boom, Boom, Boom, long term baby!

Love it or hate it… Did you know that Walmart’s annual sales ($573B) totaled 2.25% of our country’s GDP last year? The company employs 1.6 million workers in the USA. That’s a really big family business, or rather was.

Still. It’s hard to imagine Sam Walton started the company as a single location brick & mortar variety goods (country store) retailer back in 1945, with a $20,000 loan from his father-in-law in Arkansas! An astronomical success story, one that underscores the meaning of making your American dream come true, and a bigtime family business success.

The big distinction that pushed Walmart over the hump in the early days was their willingness to embrace newer logistics and inventory technologies or else. Decline. This enabled them to avoid the game-ending pitfalls that many more-stubborn family island businesses fall prey to when trying to scale up.

At the same time, building and owning something profitable that can sustain a generation of family prosperity is the leading driver behind entrepreneurs like Sam Walton who stick it out.

Make no mistake mom & pop shops are still the fledgling future of American commerce and employment. And we won’t succeed without them.

Did you know there are more than 1 million husband & wife businesses right now across America according to the SBA.

But if they want to grow big and prosper in the longer term according to the 2023 SBA/SCORE Family Business survey and other experts, family businesses need to help themselves as early as possible in their lifecycle, before it’s too late.

Here are a few important practices most family business owners could do now to improve their chances of success, for example:

• Open the back office – Embrace new technologies top to bottom. Just because something “works” doesn’t mean it’s the most efficient or profitable way

• Hire a CFO or VP of Finance asap – This is often overlooked. As an M&A advisor we see higher valuations and better financing terms for small companies with sound financial practices

• Develop better governance – Create an advisory board that includes outside directors with no skin in the game who are well qualified to provide advice for the challenges of a growing business

• Focus on the next generation – Ensure that family members committed to the company’s future serve on boards and committees to nurture and grow their business expertise and management skills

• Act small, think big – Be more customer and employee-focused. 74% of family-owned firms report stronger values and culture than non-family-owned businesses. So, use that to emphasize your commitment to each customer and each employee, each day. This will strengthen the community bond between employees, customers and family

Giving hope and a helping hand

Lastly, it’s not all bad news if you know where to look. Despite the headwinds, according to the Economic Innovation Group (EIG), a non-profit public policy research firm, there’s been “a huge surge in the number of new business applications” in the past two years, much greater than pre-pandemic levels.

And to help smooth the way for these fledgling family entrepreneurs, and all small businesses, members of Congress decided to step up as well.

Last December 2022, a bipartisan Congressional Family Business Caucus was formed to connect Members of Congress with family businesses in their district/home states to promote an open productive dialog and develop solutions to assist local businesses. [Click on the link to find your representative.]

Their goal, along with the SBA and SCORE, is to help support and promote the important role of family businesses by reducing government red-tape and put a spotlight on “workforce issues, tax policy, economic issues, and community development,” they say.

It remains to be seen how effective government can be these days. But as a family business advisor I welcome any help if it works!

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But in my view in order to slow the growing pessimism and decline of America’s family businesses it will take a village, so to speak. And that village is your home town USA. Because the real help must start by readjusting our purchasing behavior.

We control the destiny of small family businesses in America, not our government nor any other. But no family business can survive nor learn to engage any “Best Practices” if we don’t provide the most important part first: paying customers.

So, let’s give it some thought this holiday season. Think about the impact you’ve read about here, and the responsibility we each have to preserve and strengthen our family businesses. They are vital threads that founded the fabric of our proud American culture and legacy.

Try to shop locally in person and on-line this holiday season. It can make or break the future for our children and our future Country Stores. Because we’re all in this together, right?

And remember, when you shop locally chances are the smiling face looking back at you from behind the counter is a welcoming family business owner whose entrepreneurial spirit still has mouths to feed, just like you!

Happy Holidays to all.

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For a deeper dive into Family Business structure and leadership best practices, the University of Loyola Family Business Center published these information/education guideline white papers that can help you navigate around pending pitfalls. Print them, read them, learn from them, like I did:

• Managing Relationships (PDF)
• Guidelines for Family Business Boards of Directors (PDF)
• Leadership (PDF)
• Strategy / Finance (PDF)

For more insights and assistance with your family business check out these resources I used:

1. Family Enterprise USA
2. Elderman Trust Institute Barometer Survey
3. Congressional Family Business Caucus
4. SBA/SCORE 2023 Family Business Survey
5. The Family Business Center of Loyola

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Fun facts from Family Enterprise USA

• 91% of family businesses kept jobs during the recent high-inflation period
• 46% pay “above average” wages and benefits
• 72% have non-family “generational employees” working there
• 82% of survey respondent companies donated funds to local charities

Rick Andrade