Do you remember your first elementary school Report Card? I do. I still have an old one, faded blue cardboard with hand-written Cs and Ds. I was a difficult child.
But did you ever wish you could give your teacher a report card instead?
This is my take on doing exactly that. A post-election review and assessment of our 47th president from the people, politics and markets worldwide he’s rocked to the core inside the first 30 days of his new administration.
They say you get what you voted for. And while the ground shaking agenda Trump has embarked on lends confidence for business leaders early on, it’s the president’s base that tallies the real grades.
Here’s what I mean.
As of this writing, what started with a loud bang has faded. Trump’s popularity is slipping. As markets once flirted with all-time highs, Trump’s handling of the US economy in a recent Reuters poll shows more Americans disapprove of his approach leaping 10 points from 36% to 47% disapproval rate since his Jan 20th 2025, inaugural day.
One the other hand, the recent Conference Board CEO Survey shows CEOs “were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions” in 2025 and have moved from Cautious Optimism to Confident about the outlook this year.
More than 70% plan to raise wages by 3% which explains in part why the stock market is reaching past the mixed news to new highs.
But there is a growing sense of caution. A drop in Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ mid-month Flash Index) in February from 52.9 to 49.7 marks the lowest since 2023. Any figure below 50 indicates contraction. Meanwhile, “uncertainty levels” are spiking across the economy and consumer confidence as tracked by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey just released has flipped to a 15-month low. Which begs the question: Is Trump dragging the economy into Recession, or worse, Stagflation?
The short answer is Maybe. One key indicator is the declining Housing Starts figures down 10% in January. Did you know Housing permit-drops preceded a recession in 8 out of last 9 recessions since World War II? Yikes!
So what’s going on?
It seems as if American business leaders either have their collective heads in the ground or have their lips on the Kool-Aid glass, punch drunk on the outlook of longer-term wins, and willing to accept the short-term chaos to get them.
Still, 55% of CEOs do acknowledge “geopolitical instability” as their #1 high-impact risk to business conditions this year. But for now, if you ask Captain John Smith of the RMS Titanic about the economy, it’s… ‘What iceberg? Full steam ahead’!
All this oscillating up and down is enough to make me sea-sick trying to follow it but does have a common square root denominator sitting in the oval office, pulling levers and pushing buttons behind a curtain like the Great Oz.
Some say issuing a Trump report card at this early stage is absurd, like judging a race before the starting gun. And I agree. But, I did it anyway.
Let’s see if you agree:
In his first 30+ days on the job, Trump has signed more than 70 executive orders on his way to the 220 he signed in his first term. As a consequence, the administration has already issued more than 30,000 ‘Your Fired’ pink slips to federal employees, cut fed-funding for dozens of domestic and international programs, rolled back more than 1200 regulations, put reciprocal tariffs on all countries that tariff US imports, closed the border to undocumented migrants and made friends with Putin. That’s a lot!
Like no administration in decades the Trump team has left no stone unturned. And so given his progress on several key issues here’s my assessment of his handling of these subjects thus far.
You be the judge.
| DOGE – Don’t Overlook Getting Eliminated | B+ |
I gave him a B+ here because the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon, is claiming it’s identified more than $55 billion in savings. While supporters applaud the efforts to streamline government and reduce spending, critics worry about disrupted services and hasty disruptive decision-making.
Key departments like Health and Human Services, Veterans Affairs, and the IRS have seen significant workforce reductions. But the initiative’s long-term impact remains uncertain, with legal challenges mounting and concerns about essential services growing. Americans are divided, weighing potential efficiency gains against the human cost and service disruptions of these sweeping overhauls.
Only time will tell if DOGE will hit the mark. Midterm elections will be the first big test in 2026 in my view. In the meanwhile, it’s buckle-up time America – this roller-coaster is just getting started.
| Trade Tariffs & Inflation | C- |
This grade comes in mixed on the downside. Before the elections Trump promised several things to get the US back on track and among them was reducing inflation. Americans want prices to go down, not up. But that’s easier said than done given the current state of uncertainty. Trump is insisting on a 20% tariff on China, a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a “reciprocal” tariff on everybody else, which is fair in my view, but potentially inflationary as prices will increase on key imports like autos and raw material commodities.
At this time with a 2.9% year over year inflation rate the U.S. Federal Reserve refuses to lower its benchmark Fed Funds rate any further as I had hoped for in my article2025: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Year Ahead published by CEO World where citing the last mile down to 2% target is going to be a tough haul. That said, this leaves us at the mercy of market pricing dynamics whereby we are unlikely to see inflation fall much further this year experts say.
| Immigration Crackdown | C+ |
“It’s the most difficult problem,” Trump said in a recent White House governors’ luncheon. Millions of people have crossed the southern border, many with criminal, gang, and drug cartel backgrounds. Enough is enough in so many words, regardless of right or wrong Trump has in his first month authorized ICE to pursue and deport the bad apples asap. This is a tough call. Some like the aggressive stance others are taking hits to their bottom line.
He deployed 1,000 troops to the southern border, re-instated his “Remain in Mexico” policy, and broadened the scope of deports for undocumented immigrants. The sudden crackdown is sending shockwaves across Mexican communities and industries like agriculture and construction that employ migrant labor but also including a big reduction in the number of street vendors who see themselves as easy targets for ICE in many US cities: exactly what voters wanted.
| Russia/Ukraine war | D |
Personally, I would prefer to give Trump an F for failure as American witnessed a stunning line of reasoning by Trump recently when he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator for not holding elections, and the one who started the war. Needless to say, these remarks set the internet on fire appealing to Zelensky’s defense, and flipping the EU and NATO on its side, giving notice that Americans are done funding Europe’s defense, end of story.
Meanwhile Trump is dead set on ending the war despite his offer to help Ukraine if Zelensky agrees to repay the American people with Ukraine’s abundant natural rare-earth minerals used in electronics, batteries and computers in a deal that would reduce our reliance on China. I like that idea.
But Zelensky said the deal didn’t go far enough yet to secure Ukraine from a future attack he firmly believes will come from a re-armed Putin in time.
The bottom-line Trumps says is getting a return on the billions Americans spent on defending Ukraine, but the bull in the China shop approach has ruffled the feathers of America’s allies in NATO and given pause to America’s leadership and logic on the global stage. This approach in my view is completely wrong, and I anticipate Trump will need to back off the unproductive rhetoric before Ukraine can agree to any ceasefire deal.
| Trumps Overall Summary Assessment | C- |
This is my overall grade for Trump at this early stage. And from the look of things when you add it all up, Trump’s report card is likely to get him grounded from playing golf on weekends by mom and dad, or other hobbies until he gets his grades up, as I had to do back in the day.
Still. The economy looks resilient despite Trump’s inaugural era of uncertainty. Unemployment rate at 4.0% is the lowest since 2019 and among the lowest in decades. That’s a welcome support beam.
When people have jobs the US economy grows, which means if you can navigate the shifting landscape your business and our GDP will grow as well, which may explain the intoxicated CEO confidence.
On the other hand, if consumer confidence continues to slide and Americans get spooked, as I see is occurring now, more employers will lay-off workers as customers pull back spending and wait for calmer seas. And that could portend a recession later this year if we’re not careful.
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In conclusion, the way I see it, Trump’s second term has started off with a flurry of activity and controversy. His aggressive approach to right-sizing government efficiency, trade, immigration, and foreign policy has yielded mixed results, and divided reactions. While business leaders express optimism, public opinion and economic indicators are flashing signs of caution.
As we move forward, it’s crucial to monitor how these early decisions impact long-term economic stability, global partnerships, and social cohesion within the United States.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether Trump’s bold strategies will lead to sustainable growth and improved conditions for Americans, or if they will result in increased uncertainty and a potential economic downturn.
Ultimately, the true measure of the President’s second term will depend on how well his administration can balance its ambitious agenda with the complex realities of governance and the diverse needs of the American people. And despite my tough grades, I’m still hopeful and optimistic.
What say you? How would you grade Trump’s performance at this point?
Rick.
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About the author: Rick Andrade is an investment banker and market advisor in Los Angeles, Ca, where he helps CEOs and business owners buy, sell, and finance middle-market companies. Rick earned his BA and MBA from UCLA, along with his Series 7, 63, & 79 FINRA securities licenses. He is also a CA Real Estate Broker and blogs at www.RickAndrade.com on issues important to business owners. He can be reached at rickandrade.com.